Partisan Democrat

Thursday, August 24, 2006

Possible Senate Republican Pickups

Here's the Senate republican chances. As I said before I'm not suggesting by the title that I think these will be pickups, in fact some of these seats here are unopposed, I'm just listing the districts that lean the most favorably.

Number 1

47th Senate District Dem Index: 50.58 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: John Sullivan (D)
No Election


Number 2

59th Senate District Dem Index: 53.55 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Gary Forby (D)
No Election


Number 3

49th Senate District Dem Index: 54.8 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Deanna Demuzio (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $466,066.39

Challenger: Jeff Richey (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $23,634.37

2004 Results:
Deanna Demuzio (D) 100%
Unopposed

2002 Results:
Vince Demuzio (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 44.1%
04 Obama: 63.2%
02 Blago: 50.6%
02 Durbin: 61.3%

Comments: Demuzio now serves in her late husband's seat. While this is her first contested election she does have the family name recognition in a district that leans democratic and she has a sizeable cash advantage.


Number 4

56th Senate District Dem Index: 58.68 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Bill Haine(D)
No Election


Number 5

36th Senate District Dem Index: 58.85 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Mike Jacobs (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $121,836.11

Challenger: James Beals (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $4,561.79

2004 Results:
No Election

2002 Results:
Denny Jacobs (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 54.1%
04 Obama: 70.4%
02 Blago: 51.1%
02 Durbin: 59.8%

Comments: It's a strong dem district and Jacobs the incumbent has a huge cash advantage.


Number 6

40th Senate District Dem Index: 60.9 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Debbie Halvorson (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $283,504.24

Challenger: Joseph Maun (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $1,688.53

2004 Results:
No Election

2002 Results:
Debbie Halvorson (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 55.7%
04 Obama: 72.9%
02 Blago: 54.3%
02 Durbin: 60.7%

Comments: How do you take someone with $1,600 seriously, especially in a district where competitive dems are winning by 10 points.


Number 7

46th Senate District Dem Index: 61.5 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Open Seat
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

Incumbent Party Candidate: David Koehler (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $6,533.18

Challenger: Ernest Russell (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $1,238.11

2004 Results:
No Election

2002 Results:
George Shadid (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 56.3%
04 Obama: 72.8%
02 Blago: 52.8%
02 Durbin: 64.1%

Comments: It's an open seat for George Shadid's old district that leans pretty strongly dem where both candidates have very little money and the Republican candidate just got on the ballot this June. Expect a lot of money from the party committees. Also this is the Senate district that contains the Aaron Schock/Bill Spears race so this race will be affected by whichever side gets out their base in that race.

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