Partisan Democrat

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Possible Senate Democratic Pickups

Now let's give the Senate rundown starting with the democrats. As I said before I'm not suggesting by the title that I think these will be pickups, in fact some of these seats here are unopposed, I'm just listing the dem districts that lean the most republican.

Number 1

34th Senate District Dem Index: 59.23 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Dave Syverson (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $215,490.60

Challenger: Dan Lewandowski (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $25,518.51

2004 Results:
No election

2002 Results:
Dave Syverson (R) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 55.4%
04 Obama: 69.7%
02 Blago: 52.8%
02 Durbin: 59.0%

Comments: Syverson is one of the more conservative members of the Senate Republican caucus and is widely credited (or blamed) for being the person who brought in Alan Keyes. It's a district that leans democratic with Kerry, Blagojevich, Durbin and Obama all carrying the district but Lewandowski will need an influx of cash to be competitive.


Number 2

52nd Senate District Dem Index: 57.55 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Open Seat
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

Incumbent Party Candidate: Judith Myers (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $65,790.78

Challenger: Mike Frerichs (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $113,242.43

2004 Results:
No election

2002 Results:
Rick Winkel (R) 50.5%
Dan McCollum (D) 49.5%

04 Kerry: 52.9%
04 Obama: 67.9%
02 Blago: 48.8%
02 Durbin: 60.6%

Comments: This is Rick Winkel's old seat that in 2002 was decided by 1 point. Now Frerichs has a cash advantage, but with the various issues surrounding the University of Illinois and the unpredictable nature of student turnout it's just too hard to predict what will happen.


Number 3

22nd Senate District Dem Index: 57.45 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Open Seat
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

Incumbent Party Candidate: Billie Roth (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $81,622.55

Challenger: Michael Noland(D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $16,651.60

2004 Results:
No election

2002 Results:
Steve Rauschenberger (R) 56.6%
Robert Steffen (D) 43.4%

04 Kerry: 54.6%
04 Obama: 71.9%
02 Blago: 48.1%
02 Durbin: 55.2%

Comments: This is Steve Rauschenberger's old seat that he gave up to not run for Governor and not win for Lt. Governor. I'd tell you more about Billie Roth except I've never heard of her before and I can't remember seeing a single news item that mentioned her. Noland has had run several times for one of this district's House seats and now is hoping to get more help from the Senate dems than he did from the House dems.


Number 4

42nd Senate District Dem Index: 55.30 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Open Seat
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

Incumbent Party Candidate: Terri Ann Wintermute (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $37,457.59

Challenger: Linda Holmes (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $7,805.16

2004 Results:
No election

2002 Results:
Ed Petka (R) 63.3%
Alex Arroyo (D) 36.7%

04 Kerry: 51.8%
04 Obama: 70.6%
02 Blago: 45.2%
02 Durbin: 53.3%

Comments: Another open seat, this time it's Ed Petka's old seat. It's a district that Kerry won in a presidental year and Blagojevich didn't in an off year election.


Number 5

58th Senate District Dem Index: 55.25 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: David Luechtefeld (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $132,569.16

Challenger: Unopposed
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

2004 Results:
No election

2002 Results:
David Luechtefeld (R) 62.5%
Charles Goforth (D) 37.5%

04 Kerry: 47.7%
04 Obama: 64.9%
02 Blago: 50.3%
02 Durbin: 58.1%

Comments: Wise man say, "it's hard to win when you have no canidate."


Number 6

38th Senate District Dem Index: 54.93 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Gary Dahl (R)
No Election


Number 7

50th Senate District Dem Index: 51.80 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Larry Bomke (R)
No Election


Number 8

33rd Senate District Dem Index: 51.68 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Cheryl Axley (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $87,214.66

Challenger: Dan Kotowski (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $56,969.93

2004 Results:
No election

2002 Results:
David Sullivan (R) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 45.5%
04 Obama: 69.9%
02 Blago: 38.3%
02 Durbin: 49.0%

Comments: Kotowski will have to work his butt of in a district that Kerry, Blagojevich and Durbin all lost. However the suburbs have been trending more democratic.

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