Partisan Democrat

Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Possible House Republican Pickups

Yesterday I did the dem pickups, today let's focus on the other side. As I said yesterday I'm not suggesting by the title that I think these will be pickups, in fact the first one here is unopposed, I'm just listing the dem districts that lean the most republican.

Number 1

63rd House District Dem index: 47.4 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Jack Franks (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $23,841.01

Challenger: Unopposed
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

2004 Results:
Jack Franks (D) 65.1%
Perry Moy (R) 34.9%

2002 Results:
Jack Franks (D) 69.0%
Steve Cuda (R) 31.0%

04 Kerry: 39.7%
04 Obama: 63.2%
02 Blago: 37.3%
02 Durbin: 49.4%

Comments: Franks has been winning his district with a higher percentage than even Obama, maybe that's why he's an unopposed democrat in a district that leans strong republican. Still, given this district's makeup it's surprising that they're giving him a free pass.

Number 2

75th House District Dem index: 50.4 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Careen Gordon (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $7,477.35

Challenger: Jason Briscoe (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $12,642.87

2004 Results:
Careen Gordon (D) 51.7%
Doug Hayse (R) 48.3%

2002 Results:
Mary Kay O'Brien (D) 70.8%
Patricia Clemmons (R) 29.2%

04 Kerry: 41.3%
04 Obama: 64.0%
02 Blago: 41.7%
02 Durbin: 54.6%

Comments: Gordon was appointed to fill the seat of Mary Kay O'Brien when she went on to be a judge. In 2004 she won her seat by running 10 points higher than Kerry and squeaked by in a tough race. It looks like they will be heavily dependent on money from the leadership caucuses becasue these two candidates can barely afford to take a New Lenox mayor to the strip clubs.


Number 3

118th House District Dem index: 52.18 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Brandon Phelps (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $129,601.16

Challenger: Rhonda Belford (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $5,120.08

2004 Results:
Brandon Phelps (D) 100%
Unopposed

2002 Results:
Brandon Phelps (D) 62.8%
Darla Partridge (R) 37.2%

04 Kerry: 40.2%
04 Obama: 58.1%
02 Blago: 52.2%
02 Durbin: 58.2%

Comments: This is the kind of district that you don't see as much anymore, home to a lot of pro-life, pro-gun democrats. Blagojevich won it but Kerry got creamed by 20 and Obama got held under 60%. The last time he had a race Phelps took 62% exceeding Obama's popularity and given his cash advantage I would be surprised if he is vulnerable, but given the atypical nature of the district I'm not making any predictions.


Number 4

37th House District Dem index: 53.15 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Kevin McCarthy (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $91,310.54

Challenger: Unopposed
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

2004 Results:
Kevin McCarthy (D) 100%
Unopposed

2002 Results:
Kevin McCarthy (D) 68.7%
Joel Herrick (R) 31.3%

04 Kerry: 46.6%
04 Obama: 70.1%
02 Blago: 43.4%
02 Durbin: 52.5%

Comments: I like his chances but if there's anyone who could screwup a race while running unopposed it's McCarthy.


Number 5

107th House District Dem index: 53.35 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Kurt Granberg (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $367,757.61

Challenger: John Cavaletto (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $27,907.59

2004 Results:
Kurt Granberg (D) 67.3%
Wayne Steevens (R) 31.7%

2002 Results:
Kurt Granberg (D) 54.7%
John Cavaletto (R) 45.3%

04 Kerry: 42.5%
04 Obama: 60.4%
02 Blago: 52.4%
02 Durbin: 58.1%

Comments: This is another one of those districts with a lot of conservative democrats. My guess is that the republicans will try to take a page out of the handbook they used in 2004 for David Reis' win over Bill Grunloh in the neighboring 108th district, but Granberg has a history of winning the district and beat this opponent in 2002.


Number 6

117th House District Dem index: 53.98 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: John Bradley (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $25,590.36

Challenger: Unopposed
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

2004 Results:
John Bradley (D) 71.8%
Leslie Donelson (R) 28.2%

2002 Results:
Gary Forby (D) 62.8%
Bob Brown (R) 37.2%

04 Kerry: 41.8%
04 Obama: 62.8%
02 Blago: 50.8%
02 Durbin: 60.5%

Comments: Unopposed is unopposed.


Number 7

116th House District Dem index: 55.53 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Dan Reitz (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $281,868.83

Challenger: Unopposed
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

2004 Results:
Dan Reitz (D) 100%
Unopposed

2002 Results:
Dan Reitz (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 45.8%
04 Obama: 63.4%
02 Blago: 53.3%
02 Durbin: 59.6%

Comments: You kind of get the sense that the Republicans don't even want to win the House back.


Number 8

101st House District Dem index: 56.58 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Bob Flider (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $48,425.35

Challenger: Dick Cain (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $30,428.78

2004 Results:
Bob Flider (D) 53.1%
Scot England (R) 46.9%

2002 Results:
Julie Curry (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 47.1%
04 Obama: 63.4%
02 Blago: 51.4%
02 Durbin: 64.4%

Comments: Flider was appointed after Julie Curry left to go work for the Blagojevich administration. He won the seat after a tough race in 2004 and now looks to do it again. The district seems to lean democratic and he is the incumbent but you never know.


Number 9

71st House District Dem index: 56.7 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Mike Boland (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $137,011.02

Challenger: Steve Haring (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $12,040.09

2004 Results:
Mike Boland (D) 55.5%
Steve Haring (R) 44.5%

2002 Results:
Mike Boland (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 51.5%
04 Obama: 68.6%
02 Blago: 49.2%
02 Durbin: 57.5%

Comments: This should be a safe seat but with Lane Evans retiring from Congress and that district in play who knows what will happen.


Number 10

112th House District Dem index: 56.88 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Jay Hoffman (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $924,410.32

Challenger: Carol Kugler (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $19,675.16

2004 Results:
Jay Hoffman (D) 87.8%
Carol Kugler (R) 12.2%

2002 Results:
Jay Hoffman (D) 68.5%
Allen Wright (R) 31.5%

04 Kerry: 50.4%
04 Obama: 65.6%
02 Blago: 53.4%
02 Durbin: 58.1%

Comments: You can't beat that much money and the House Republicans aren't going to piss away their money trying.


Number 11

79th House District Dem index: 57.08 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Lisa Dugan (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $41,204.30

Challenger: Sam Nicholos (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $9,428.00

2004 Results:
Lisa Dugan (D) 52.7%
Kay Pangle (R) 47.3%

2002 Results:
Phil Novak (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 49.3%
04 Obama: 68.9%
02 Blago: 50.5%
02 Durbin: 59.6%

Comments: Dugan took over Phil Novak's seat when he got appointed to the Blagojevich administration and then wound up in a tough race to defend the seat in 2004. It should be a safe district but I went all the way down to this race just because it was so close last time.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home