Partisan Democrat

Monday, August 21, 2006

Possible Democratic House Pickups

All Illinois State House seats are up this November. Here is the basic information on the House seats where the district has the highest democratic index (see here for an explanation) for seats that aren't already controlled by democrats.

Note: just to be clear I'm not suggesting by the title that I think these will be pickups, in fact a couple of them are unopposed, I'm just listing the Republican districts that most lean democratic in descending order.

Number 1

92nd House District Dem index: 63.03 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Aaron Schock (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $106,017.56

Challenger: Bill Spears (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $34,680.50

2004 Results:
Aaron Schock (R) 50.3%
Ricca Slone (D) 49.7%

2002 Results:
Ricca Slone (D) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 59.8%
04 Obama: 74.9%
02 Blago: 53.4%
02 Durbin: 64.0%

Comments: Young Aaron Schock pulled off the surprise upset of the 2004 legislative elections by winning in what was thought of as a safe democratic district. He's been a top target from the day he was sworn in.


Number 2


17th House District Dem index: 62.95 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Beth Coulson (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $130,064.96

Challenger: Judith-Rae Ross (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $3,168.08

2004 Results:
Beth Coulson (R) 53.9%
Michele Bromberg (D) 46.1%

2002 Results:
Beth Coulson (R) 50.89%
Pat Hughes (D) 49.11%

04 Kerry: 58.8%
04 Obama: 78.0%
02 Blago: 53.2%
02 Durbin: 61.8%

Comments: It seems like it should be a competitive district, but Coulson keeps winning tough races and Ross hasn't raised any money.


Number 3


17th House District Dem index: 60.88 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Mike McAuliffe (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $15,765.56

Challenger: Unopposed
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

2004 Results:
Mike McAuliffe (R) 59.2%
Ralph Capparelli (D) 40.8%

2002 Results:
Mike McAuliffe (R) 53.77%
Robert Bugielski (D) 46.33%

04 Kerry: 55.0%
04 Obama: 74.1%
02 Blago: 52.4%
02 Durbin: 62.0%

Comments: I like McAuliffe's chances in this one.


Number 4


85th House District Dem index: 59.03 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Brent Hassert (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $300,295.87

Challenger: Karen Gonzalez (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $9,602.16

2004 Results:
Brent Hassert (R) 79.9%
Austin Hough (L) 20.1%

2002 Results:
Brent Hassert (R) 79.68%
Eric Ferguson (L) 20.32

04 Kerry: 54.5%
04 Obama: 73.2%
02 Blago: 50.4%
02 Durbin: 58.0%

Comments: The cash on hand in this one is pretty lopsided, especially to unseat an incumbent.


Number 5

99th House District Dem index: 57.88 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Raymond Poe (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $61,409.81

Challenger: Sam Cahnman
June 30 Cash on Hand: $7,811.56

2004 Results:
Raymond Poe (R) 64.4%
CJ Higgason (D) 35.6%

2002 Results:
Raymond Poe (R) 59.6%
Don Craven (D) 40.4%

04 Kerry: 48.6%
04 Obama: 70.1%
02 Blago: 50.0%
02 Durbin: 62.8%

Comments: For a while Poe was considering running statewide but he decided to stick with his seat and now he faces surprise primary winner Cahnman who won an upset over a Springfield alderman, partly by tying his campaign to a local ballot referendum. Now the underfunded Cahnman is trying to generate the same grassroots support with another ballot measure.


Number 6

77th House District Dem index: 57.6 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Skip Saviano (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $476,861.27

Challenger: Unopposed
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

2004 Results:
Skip Saviano (R) 100%
Unopposed

2002 Results:
Skip Saviano (R) 100%
Unopposed

04 Kerry: 55.2%
04 Obama: 73.5%
02 Blago: 50.0%
02 Durbin: 51.7%

Comments: Too close to call.


Number 7

43rd House District Dem index: 57.38 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Ruth Munson (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $30,183.60

Challenger: Laurel Bault (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: N/A

2004 Results:
Ruth Munson (R) 50.8%
Mike Noland (D) 49.2

2002 Results:
Doug Hoeft (R) 58.8%
Mike Noland (D) 41.2%

04 Kerry: 54.9%
04 Obama: 71.0%
02 Blago: 48.0%
02 Durbin: 55.6%

Comments: This was expected to be a tough race in a district that leans more and more democratic but the challenger is a late addition after the dems first candidate had to drop out due to family issues. There's a lot of ground to make up and not a lot of time to do it.

Number 8

44th House District Dem index: 57.23 (see here for an explanation)

Incumbent: Terry Parke (R)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $124,111.12

Challenger: Fred Crespo (D)
June 30 Cash on Hand: $4,571.10

2004 Results:
Terry Parke (R) 100%
Unopposed

2002 Results:
Terry Parke (R) 61.0%
Jesse Macro (D) 39.0%

04 Kerry: 54.3%
04 Obama: 72.8%
02 Blago: 47.0%
02 Durbin: 54.8%

Comments: Parke has been known to get under the skin of the democrats, and some republicans, but it looks like the house dems will have to dump some money into this race to make it competitive.

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